Sivertsen – Gentong Score

The Lars Resort: Tips peluang dari Lars Sivertsen

Gentong Score — Tue, 17 Sep 2024 10:00:28 +0000

Putaran pertama musim ini sudah berakhir dan kita semua telah melihat tim-timnya untuk pertama kalinya. Artinya, kita mengetahui lebih banyak dibandingkan minggu lalu. Namun sekarang tantangannya menjadi tidak bereaksi berlebihan hanya pada satu permainan…Inilah peningkatan treble dan tiga taruhan tunggal yang baru!

Oleh Lars Sivertsen, Pakar Sepak Bola untuk Betsson

Peningkatan treble minggu ini

Brighton – Manchester United

Kami memulai di pantai selatan tempat Manchester United mengunjungi Brighton. Bos Brighton yang masih sangat muda, Fabian Hürzeler, mengawali timnya dengan kemenangan melawan Everton akhir pekan lalu, dan itu adalah penampilan yang meyakinkan. Mengesampingkan sejenak bahwa pemain Everton dikeluarkan dari lapangan pada menit ke-66, apa yang Brighton lakukan dengan sangat baik adalah menggunakan pemain mereka yang cepat dan terampil untuk meregangkan Everton dan membuka lebih banyak ruang daripada yang biasa kita lihat yang diizinkan oleh tim Sean Dyche. oposisi. Menyaksikan pemain seperti Mitoma dan Yankuba Minteh berlari di Everton akhir pekan lalu, Anda pasti merasakan bahwa ini adalah pertandingan yang berbahaya bagi Manchester United.

Berbahaya khususnya karena United cenderung memberikan terlalu banyak ruang kepada lawan untuk dilawan. Memperbaiki formasi donat yang cenderung diadopsi United musim lalu pasti akan menjadi prioritas besar bagi Erik ten Hag musim ini, dan dengan penambahan yang dilakukan di bursa transfer musim panas ini, dia akan lebih siap untuk melakukannya. Tapi saya tidak sepenuhnya yakin masalah ini sudah diperbaiki, dan ketika Anda membayangkan pemain sayap cepat Brighton berlari melawan pemain seperti Casemiro dan Harry Maguire, Anda merasa Brighton bisa bersenang-senang di sini.

Meski begitu, saya tidak cukup percaya Brighton untuk mendukung mereka secara langsung. Yang ingin saya lakukan di sini adalah memilih “kedua tim yang akan mencetak gol” untuk treble mingguan kami. United tidak 100% meyakinkan melawan Fulham Jumat lalu, tetapi mereka berhasil mengumpulkan xG yang sangat solid sebesar 2,4 pada akhirnya.

Seperti yang selalu kami katakan terkait Manchester United musim lalu, bahkan jika tim tidak bermain bagus, ada begitu banyak talenta menyerang di tim ini, Anda tetap mendukung mereka untuk mendapatkan setidaknya satu gol di sebagian besar pertandingan. Dan tentu saja, musim ini sangat mungkin tim akan bermain lebih baik secara keseluruhan.

Saya pikir Brighton, dengan barisan penyerang mereka yang cepat dan cerdik, seharusnya mampu melakukan beberapa kerusakan di kandang sendiri – tetapi saya juga mendukung Manchester United untuk mendapatkan gol di beberapa titik. Jadi, dengan logika tersebut, masuk akal untuk menambahkan “kedua tim mencetak gol” di sini ke treble mingguan kami.

Crystal Palace – West Ham

Kami akan mencari lebih banyak gol di Selhurst Park, di mana Crystal Palace menghadapi West Ham. Palace kalah 2-1 pada akhirnya melawan Brentford akhir pekan lalu, tetapi mereka menampilkan performa yang bersemangat dan melepaskan 14 tembakan yang sangat wajar dalam pertandingan itu. Palace pasti melemah karena kepergian Michael Olise, tetapi Eberechi Eze masih ada dan saya yakin Daichi Kamada akan menjadi tambahan yang berguna bagi tim. West Ham tidak buruk melawan Aston Villa di pertandingan pembukaan mereka, tapi mereka membiarkan terlalu banyak peluang melawan mereka di kandang sesuai dengan keinginan saya. Villa, harus diakui, adalah tim yang lebih baik daripada Crystal Palace – tetapi menurut saya West Ham masih belum sepenuhnya menggantikan Declan Rice dalam hal perebutan bola di area tengah. Bahayanya saat ini adalah membaca terlalu banyak mengenai jumlah pertandingan sepak bola yang sangat terbatas yang kita lihat sejauh ini dari tim-tim ini, namun West Ham pekan lalu bagi saya tidak terlihat seperti tim yang akan pergi ke Selhurst Park dan tersingkir. Istana Kristal.

Pada saat yang sama, dengan kepergian Joachim Anderssen ke Fulham dan pertanyaan terus diajukan tentang masa depan Marc Guehi, pertahanan Istana kemungkinan akan kurang stabil di sini dibandingkan sebelumnya.

Dan dengan pemain seperti Lucas Paqueta dan Mohammed Kudus di tim, Anda akan selalu mendukung West Ham untuk menciptakan banyak peluang. Bagi saya, ini tertulis “kedua tim mencetak gol” dan saya dengan senang hati menambahkan pilihan itu ke treble mingguan kami.

Southampton – Hutan Nottingham

Terakhir pada treble minggu ini kami kembali ke pantai selatan, dalam hal ini ke Southampton. Tim asuhan Russell Martin menampilkan performa yang mengagumkan dalam banyak hal akhir pekan lalu melawan Newcastle, namun mereka tidak mampu menyia-nyiakan peluang mereka, kebobolan karena kesalahan buruk dan kalah 1-0 setelah unggul satu pemain selama lebih dari satu jam. Bos Southampton mengambil banyak hal positif dari kinerjanya dan mengingat cara timnya mendominasi penguasaan bola saat bertandang ke Newcastle, hal itu dapat dimengerti.

Namun saya juga melihat beberapa hal yang mengkhawatirkan saya tentang Southampton menjelang musim ini: penjagaan gawang yang buruk, gaya bermain yang terlalu mudah dihukum di level ini, dan penyelesaian akhir yang tidak mengesankan di lini depan. Itu hanya satu pertandingan, bereaksi berlebihan terhadap data yang terbatas adalah bahaya di musim ini, tapi saya masih curiga ini bisa menjadi kisah musim Southampton.

Nottingham Forest di bawah Nuno Espirito Santo bukanlah tim yang unggul, tapi saya berharap mereka menjadi tim yang lebih pragmatis. Pertandingan pembukaan mereka melawan Bournemouth bukanlah hal yang menarik untuk dicatat, namun mereka mampu menghentikan Bournemouth untuk melakukan tugasnya dan Chris Wood yang selalu hijau berhasil membuka rekening golnya untuk musim ini.

Salah satu aspek yang patut diperhatikan dalam pertandingan ini adalah performa Ibrahim Sangare di lini tengah. Pemain Pantai Gading itu dianggap sebagai sebuah kudeta ketika Forest mengontraknya dari PSV musim panas lalu, namun ia mengalami musim pertama yang sulit di Premier. Di PSG, dia tampak seperti seorang gelandang bertahan yang berpotensi brilian, dan dengan dia di samping pemain pekerja keras asal Forest, Ryan Yates, tim tersebut seharusnya memiliki lini tengah yang sangat solid – bahkan dengan Danilo yang kini mengalami cedera parah di masa mendatang. Saya sangat menyukai area lini tengah menyerang Forest dengan Morgan Gibbs-White, Callum Hudson-Odoi dan Anthony Elanga – saya pikir ada cukup kecepatan dan energi di sana untuk memanfaatkan hadiah malang dari Southampton.

Memang agak sulit, tapi kemungkinannya mencerminkan hal ini (jika Anda memilih Nottingham Forest untuk menang sebagai single, Anda mendapat harga 2,85) dan itu akan memberi kami harga yang cukup bagus secara keseluruhan untuk treble kami minggu ini. Saya pikir gaya permainan Southampton membuat mereka sangat rentan di divisi ini dan saya pikir Nottingham Forest mempunyai alat untuk menghukum mereka.

Saya yakin pasukan Nuno bisa menang di pantai selatan jadi saya memilih Nottingham Forest untuk mengalahkan Southampton sebagai pilihan ketiga dalam treble mingguan saya.

Biasanya treble ini akan memberi Anda harga 6,96, tetapi Betsson telah meningkatkan peluangnya menjadi 8,00! Semoga beruntung!

Single terpilih

Crystal Palace – West Ham

Untuk single pilihan kami, pertama-tama kami kembali ke Selhurst Park dan mengambil favorit lama saya “kedua tim mencetak + lebih dari 2,5 gol” dengan harga 2,05. Saya suka “kedua tim mencetak gol” karena semua alasan yang diuraikan dalam analisis treble, tetapi sebagai pilihan tunggal, saya menemukan harga 1,65 agak hangat. Saya akan mengatakan bahwa ada risiko 1-1 di sini, tetapi jika kita menambahkan “lebih dari 2,5 gol” ke kedua tim untuk mencetak gol dan kita mendapatkan harga 2,05, dan menurut saya risiko ekstra itu sepadan dengan harga tersebut.

Bournemouth – Newcastle

Selanjutnya kami akan terus mencari gol, dan kami akan terus menuju pantai selatan, kali ini ke Bournemouth. Tim asuhan Andoni Iraola mendapat hasil imbang yang tak terlupakan di hari pembukaan melawan Nottingham Forest, dan kini mereka menghadapi tim Newcastle yang berbahaya di kandang sendiri. Saya katakan berbahaya, kita semua tahu kemampuan Newcastle sekarang – dan ini seharusnya menjadi pertandingan bertempo tinggi antara dua tim yang sama-sama ingin menekan secara agresif dan menyerang dengan cepat setelah mendapatkan kembali penguasaan bola.

Apa yang membuat pertandingan ini menarik bagi saya adalah absennya pertahanan Newcastle. Dengan tidak tersedianya Sven Botman, Jamal Lascelles dan Fabian Schar, kita mungkin melihat pasangan bek tengah Dan Burn dan Emil Krafth – yang tidak bisa dibilang ideal. Saya masih belum merasa nyaman melawan Newcastle di sini, saya pikir mereka memiliki begitu banyak energi dan atletis sehingga saya khawatir mereka dapat memanfaatkan ruang yang ditinggalkan Bournemouth. Tapi tetap saja, absennya pemain bertahan membuat saya sangat senang mendukung Bournemouth untuk setidaknya mendapatkan gol. Sementara itu, saya kurang percaya pada kemampuan Bournemouth untuk menjaga clean sheet melawan serangan Newcastle ini, jadi “kedua tim akan mencetak gol”. Dan lagi, dengan harga “btts” sederhana yang terlihat agak rendah menurut selera saya, saya memberikan “lebih dari 2,5 gol” sehingga kita mendapatkan harga yang sangat terjangkau yaitu 1,74. “Kedua tim mencetak + lebih dari 2,5 gol”, sekali lagi, adalah pilihan saya di sini.

Liverpool – Brentford

Terakhir, kami akan bertandang ke Anfield dan menghidupkan kembali taruhan yang merupakan jalan menuju kesuksesan bagi kami musim lalu: “Liverpool menang + kedua tim mencetak gol”. Liverpool memiliki awal yang lambat di babak pertama melawan Ipswich minggu lalu, tetapi di babak kedua mereka terlihat lebih seperti diri mereka sendiri dan menghancurkan lawan mereka yang baru dipromosikan dengan mudah. Mereka menghadapi ujian yang lebih berat di sini melawan Brentford, tetapi Liverpool adalah tim tuan rumah terbaik di liga musim lalu dengan 15 kemenangan, tiga kali seri dan hanya satu kekalahan di Anfield. Manajer yang berbeda kali ini, tetapi sebagian besar tim yang sama. Masih harus dilihat apakah Arne Slot dapat menciptakan kembali aura Anfield seperti yang dimiliki tim di bawah Jurgen Klopp, tetapi saya masih merasa sangat nyaman mendukung mereka untuk menang di kandang melawan tim-tim yang kita perkirakan akan terlihat di papan bawah klasemen musim ini.

Tapi, apakah mereka akan tetap clean sheet? Saya kira mungkin tidak. Musim lalu Liverpool hanya mencatat 10 clean sheet dari 38 pertandingan liga, rekor yang sama dengan Fulham dan Crystal Palace. Dan Brentford dapat memberikan ujian yang canggung bagi Liverpool di sini: The Bees terkenal berbahaya dalam bola mati, dan dengan tiga pemain depan Brian Mbeumo, Yoane Wissa, dan Kevin Schade mereka memiliki kecepatan yang sangat baik di lini depan. Apakah mereka melakukan serangan balik atau bola mati, saya berharap Brentford akan mendapatkan gol di beberapa titik di sini. Betsson memberi harga “Liverpool menang + kedua tim mencetak gol” pada 2,25, dan menurut saya itu adalah taruhan yang sangat menarik akhir pekan ini. Musim lalu “Liverpool menang + kedua tim mencetak gol” terjadi dalam 10 dari 19 pertandingan Premier League di Anfield, jadi hanya di atas 50%. Saya pikir Brentford cukup siap untuk setidaknya menyakiti Liverpool, jadi saya pikir 2,25 pada hasil akhir pekan ini memang sangat tidak menguntungkan.

Semoga beruntung!

PS: Harap dicatat bahwa kemungkinannya mungkin berubah setelah penulisan dan publikasi.

Terakhir Diperbarui: 22.08.24

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The Lars Resort: Odds tips from Lars Sivertsen

Gentong Score — Sat, 14 Sep 2024 15:43:32 +0000

The PL is back! With the September international break behind us it is time to get back to business, and time for me to pick out a boosted treble and three selected singles that I like this weekend.

By Lars Sivertsen, Football Expert for Betsson

Boosted Treble of the week

Southampton – Manchester United

We start off on the South Coast and we’re going to do something pretty unusual for me: We’re going to back Manchester United. We’ve had some good times going against Manchester United in various ways over the last couple of years, with the team often failing to live up to the club’s status and prestige. But I feel good backing them here, because they are facing Southampton. The Saints have actually had the second most possession in the league over their first three games, but they’ve scored just one goal and ended up with nil points. Early signs are that the style of play that got Southampton promoted last season is not going to serve them as well in the top division. Call them this season’s Burnley, if you will. But unlike Vincent Kompany, I suspect boss Russell Martin won’t get one of the top jobs in European football if Southampton are relegated.

Manchester United have been a deeply frustrating team under Erik ten Hag, though Ten Hag himself would no doubt argue that being the United boss has been a deeply frustrating experience – with injuries to key players and off-the-pitch distractions constantly undermining his effort to put his stamp on this team. Still, it is clear the Dutchman is under pressure to deliver results after an iffy start to the season. It can be hard to pinpoint just exactly what Manchester United are good at under Ten Hag, but one thing we know Ten Hag wants to do is make United one of the best transition teams around. He hasn’t been fully successful in this endeavour, to put it mildly, but one thing United have been doing fairly well at times is pressing high and forcing high turnovers. Their efforts have frequently been undermined by the massive gap left in midfield, but it is true that United tend to force a reasonable number of high turnovers. Southampton are happy, maybe too happy, to pass the ball around in their own half, making them a prime target for the one thing United do reasonably well under Ten Hag.

I’m still not fully sold on Ten Hag in particular and this Manchester United team in general, but Southampton’s first three games this season were very worrying. For all of United’s flaws, they have a good amount of speed up front and they are decent at winning possession high up the field – and I think they’ll get plenty of opportunities to show both of these qualities here. I think Manchester United will beat Southampton on Saturday.

Aston Villa – Everton

Speaking of a team that’s started poorly, here come Everton! Three games, two goals scored, ten conceded and no points is the bottom line so far for Sean Dyche’s men. Their woeful collapse against Bournemouth before the international break was the “most frustrating” defeat in Dyche’s career so far, according to the man himself. The most surprising thing about Everton’s start to the season has been just how poorly they’ve defended for many of those 10 goals conceded. You’re expecting a certain level of organization and aggression from a Sean Dyche team, and last season we mostly got that – even as misfiring strikers undermined the team’s efforts down the other end. At the start of this season it appears that the team has taken many steps backwards.

With a team in crisis, Villa away is not very high on the list of games you’re hoping to see on the fixture list. Unai Emery’s team had an impressive home record last season (12 wins, four draws and just three defeats), and have had a reasonable start to the season with two wins and a defeat – to Arsenal. The injury to Leon Bailey is a slight concern, leaving Aston Villa a little bit short down the flanks. They will be looking to the promising Morgan Rogers to pick up the slack.

Ollie Watkins is going through something of a slump – scoring no goals in his last eight starts in the league – but facing a generous Everton defence would seem to be a perfect time for him to get back on track in front of goal.

In their home games against teams that finished 9th or lower in the league last season, Aston Villa had 10 wins, two draws and no defeats.

Reliably getting the job done against teams you should be beating at home has been one of their big strengths under Unai Emery, and I don’t think they’ll slip up against a troubled Everton team. I’m backing Aston Villa to win here.

Tottenham – Arsenal

Next up, we just have to have a pick in the North London derby and I will be looking for goals. Now, there is a certain logic that suggests we may see a low-scoring game here – with Arsenal missing a few key players and Tottenham missing both their natural strikers in Dominic Solanke and Richarlison. Son Heung-min remains an uneasy fit as a striker, and Arsenal may choose to play a bit more conservatively than usual given their absentees. But come on, it’s the North London derby.

Eight out of the last 10 games between these two have gone over 2.5 goals, and even with the aforementioned caveats I think this one will do too.

The absence of Declan Rice means we’re likely to see Jorginho and Thomas Partey in the Arsenal midfield, and as much as Arsenal had the best defence in the league last season you’d have to say that Spurs should have a reasonable chance of getting through that midfield. Last season Tottenham scored in 18 out of 19 home games in the league, with the one exception being that rather odd game against Manchester City in which the home crowd were ambivalent about the occasion, to say the least. With Declan Rice having started 37 out of 38 games for Arsenal last season it becomes a little difficult to predict how much his absence will hurt them here, but logically his athleticism and work-rate should be a big miss. Spurs drawing a blank here would be a huge surprise to me.

Down the other end, of course, it’s very hard to trust the Spurs defence to not mess up at least once, and probably more times than that. The absence of Arsenal’s creator-in-chief will be a blow, but they are facing a Spurs defence that at times seems more than happy to create the opposition’s chances for them. I expect Arsenal to sit a bit deeper than they usually do, challenging Spurs to break them down and looking to hit their opponents on the break. Spurs have some decent long range shooters who might find some joy against a low block, and for sure it’s not hard to imagine Arsenal successfully hitting a snoozy Spurs backline on the break. And both teams carry significant threat from set pieces. It might be a bit more tight and niggly than North London Derbies have tended to be, but I still think we’ll get to “over 2.5 goals” in this game. So over 2.5 goals in Tottenham vs Arsenal on Sunday is my third and last pick for this weekend’s boosted treble.

Normally this treble would get you a price of 4.20, but Betsson have increased the odds to 5.00! Good luck!

Selected singles

Southampton – Manchester United

First up on the selected singles we’re going to double down on Manchester United, but we’re going to add -1.0 on the Asian handicap for a price of 2.29. A simple Manchester United win is priced at 1.78 and I think that is entirely backable, based on what I’ve seen from Southampton this season. But even though Aaron Ramsdale should be an upgrade in goal for the Saints, I think United could have a good time here and I’m happy to take the -1.0 Asian handicap version. For those who are unfamiliar with Asian handicap betting, -1.0 means that a United win by two goals or more gets you a full win – but if United win by just one goal your stake is returned. I’m very confident United will win here and I think there’s a fair chance they win by more than a goal – so -1.0 on the Asian handicap at a price of 2.30 seems like a sensible approach to me.

Fulham – West Ham

Next up we’re heading to West London and looking at Fulham against West Ham. It wouldn’t be one of my betting previews if we didn’t hit “both teams to score + over 2.5 goals” in at least one game, and this weekend I want to put that particular chip down at Craven Cottage. The “both teams to socre” test is, as usual, pretty simple: Home teams usually score, do we have a particularly strong reason to think this away team will keep a clean sheet? In the case of West Ham, not so much. It’s early days and I expect Julen Lopetegui will improve them defensively, but after three games they’ve conceded the second highest xG-number in the league – after Ipswich. This comes with two big caveats, the first being that looking at xG-numbers after just three games is a bit iffy, xG is a wonderfully useful metric but you should be careful with smaller sample sizes. The second caveat is, well, they’ve played Manchester City. That’s always unhelpful for your numbers. But West Ham conceded 15 shots at home to Aston Villa and they conceded 14 shots away to Crystal Palace. Fulham have a reasonably competent attack and I would expect them to find the net at least once here.

Now, the second question when looking at “both teams to score”-picks is, obviously, do we back the away team to get a goal? And in this case that is a pretty emphatic “yes” for me. Fulham have made some interesting signings this summer, but I’m not convinced they’ve fully filled the Joao Palhinha-shaped hole in their midfield. And as we’ve pointed out many, many times in our preview articles here, West Ham have a rather spicy attack. I’m not totally convinced that Niclas Füllkrug is the long-term Michail Antonio-replacement the team has been crying out for, but Jarrod Bowen has started the season in lively fashion and a supporting cast of Mohammed Kudus and Lucas Paqueta is not bad at all. I think this should be a watchable game in West London and I think both the hosts and the visitors should get on the scoresheet. “Both teams to score” is priced at 1.57, which is just a tiny bit on the low side, but if we add “over 2.5 goals” to the mix we end up with a much more palatable 1.95 – so I definitely think that’s worth the extra bit of risk here.

Bournemouth – Chelsea

Next up we’re going to take a bit of a swing with our last pick of the weekend, but I’m happy to do that in this early part of the season.

With just three games played in the PL so far we don’t really have quite as much data as I would like on the 20 teams in the league, meaning it’s inevitable that some of our early picks will be based more on gut feeling and subjective assessments than I typically prefer. So while we have to take some swings here, I figure it makes sense to take bigger ones now and again. For this game, I liked “Chelea to win and both teams to score” at a price of 3.30. Chelsea were very much the main character of this transfer window, and a chaotic, bordering on unhinged, approach to the market has been followed by news of boardroom squabbles and warring co-owners. With the incredible amount of money spent and very little success to show for it since the takeover, you can’t be too surprised that Chelsea’s various owners are unhappy with each other.

But forgetting all the noise and looking at the team for a moment, well, the team isn’t all that bad. One of the theories I have and that I’m willing to take a few bets on early this season, is my theory that “Chelsea are actually not bad”. They have last season’s breakout star Cole Palmer pulling strings and doing damage, and up front the much-dissed Nicolas Jackson has actually looked sharper at the start of the season. Noni Madueke suddenly scored a hat-trick against Wolves, showing flashes of his talent, and Chelsea have about 47 other wingers raring to go. How Enzo Maresca will manage the squad is one of the big questions of the season for Chelsea, but all the news of chaos and strife can distract us from the fact that the team and the players are really rather good. Playing Manchester City on the opening day of the season is a bit of a write-off, they then beat Wolves 6-2 and were enormously unfortunate not to beat Crystal Palace before the international break. I think this team is fine. The club, on a broader scale, is a circus and the squad makes no sense, but the 11 players Enzo Maresca will end up putting on the field are good – and I think the team is fine.

Bournemouth are a positive, likeable, attacking outfit under Andoni Iraola’s leadership, and with the Chelsea team still getting settled and still getting used to Maresca’s methods I would expect Bournemouth to at least lay a glove on their opponents here. Specifically, Maresca favours a patient build-up play and one of the things Iraola’s Bournemouth do well is set pressing traps for opponents who like to play out from the back. I can absolutely see Bournemouth scoring from a high turnover here. But I am less convinced that Bournemouth can keep a talented Chelsea attack out down the other end. A Chelsea win is priced at 2.08, which is not a bad bet in my opinion. I also like using the Bet Builder to get “Chelsea or draw + over 2.5 goals” at 2.02. But if we’re going to take a chance here and base our analysis on subjective assessment more than empirical data, we might as well take on a bit more risk and pick Chelsea to win + both teams to score at a tasty price of 3.21.

Good luck!

PS: Please note that the odds might have changed after writing and publication.

Last Updated: 13.09.24

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